What's Next?

Opening

If everyone is reading the right tea leaves, Ovi is coming back. From recent workout photos, he’s in Ovi shape — dad-bod-shaped refrigerator. I mean that in the best possible way. The big guy is not going to become quicker, too many miles and too late to retool, but he’s going to be a truck on the ice with a crazy one timer, sneaky passes, and the occasional big hit. The question that we all are rightly asking is, what are GM Chris Patrick and President Brian MacLellan going to do?

If Ovi comes back, it’s not just a farewell tour — it needs to be a passing of the torch.

The soon-to-be 41-year-old cannot remain the leading scorer if this team is going to transition into a successful next chapter. By this, I don’t mean that Ovi scores less and Tom Wilson scores at a standard pace, becoming the leading goal scorer. The Caps need someone to step up or slide in and be a 40+ goal scorer.

The question then is who?

The Roster Problem

Anyone who has watched the Caps over the past season has seen the need; management has been vocal about it — more than at any other time I can remember — and any commentator can come to the same conclusion. They need top-6 winger talent and, in my opinion, a true 1C. The Caps last year ran with what was essentially two 2nd lines on their best days, or a 2nd, two 3rds, and a 4th line. They have the depth but lack game-breaking front-end skill.

Looking at the farm, there are three possible young men who are primed to step up. They’re good, but the question is, are they good enough, soon enough? Leonard is the clear frontrunner here. He scored 20+ goals last year after missing a few weeks and losing his momentum. A conservative guess is that he becomes a 30-goal scorer this year — potentially 40. But it takes that potentially 40-goal season to truly fill the gap of the missing top scorer.

Ilya Protas (‘Lil Pro) has all the hype and appears to have the hands and skill to back it up — he just might be the next 1C, but we’re about three seasons out from seeing it.

Then the wild card: Cristall. He scores at every level and is proving to critics that he can play with men. But he hasn’t played in a regular-season game with the big club yet. He could become a great undersized goal scorer in the show or be a perennial top scorer in the AHL. The ceiling is real. So is the uncertainty.

Robertson as the Answer

The answer to who’s filling the goal-scoring shoes is possible from within, but not certain enough to make the most of Ovi’s last year. The ideal situation is an external solution to pair with the young guns' increasing output.

The obvious answer is probably the most popular option: Jason Robertson. Proven three-time 40-goal scorer. The biggest knock on him is speed — and for a team not known for foot speed, it feels like too much of the same thing. But it’s not. And besides, you know who he’s faster than? Ovi. Even if speed is a knock, we’re still upgrading the top goal scorer on the team.

This past year saw five young players step up and play with speed. The team's overall pace is increasing — but most importantly, Robertson can play with fast players; his most common center is Roope Hintz, who is in the 96th percentile in speed.

Other stats that sound familiar: he’s in the 97th percentile or higher in shots on goal from high-danger, midrange, and long-range areas — and 94th percentile or higher in goals from those same zones. He’s not Ovi, but his shot and production would easily become the best on the team. And it’s not just goals from the wing — it’s goals from the left side, leaving Leonard and Wilson on their strong sides. That’s particularly helpful for Leonard as he continues to develop.

The stats speak for themselves. The question surrounding him is what it will take to get Robertson out of Dallas.

Easy. Lots of assets or lots of cash. Is it worth it? Yes.

The Cost

How much cash? Last reports have Robertson looking for $14 million per year — roughly half of the Capitals’ available cap space. It’s not something to scoff at, but when you have the money, spend it on players who’ve earned it.

But money alone doesn’t get him to Washington. The Caps have two clear avenues for acquiring him: a trade and sign, or an offer sheet.

The latest reports have Dallas more likely to trade Robertson, as they are at an impasse in negotiations — unwilling to pay him more than Rantanen, a difference of roughly $2 million per year. That stalemate primes the pump for Dallas to move him before they lose him entirely. However, since he’s an RFA, losing him to an offer sheet still provides a significant return — likely four first-round picks.

What will the Caps need to hand over? Look at the Brady Tkachuk trade as a comparable — it took three firsts and a second. I think we’re looking at something similar here, but with a cost-controlled roster player instead of the second. Dallas is trying to stay a contender and will want an NHL-ready player in return. Three names fit the bill: Beauvillier, Ethen Frank, or Connor McMichael.

Anthony Beauvillier is a proven winger who can play up and down the roster. He’s entering the last year of his contract at $2.75 million — a utility winger at a reasonable price for a Dallas lineup that needs depth.

Ethen Frank is a fast, streaky goal scorer who plays above his size. He established himself last year as a depth winger who provides energy and scoring, landing a two-year, $2 million deal. A perfect fit for the bottom six of a Dallas lineup.

Finally, McMichael. He’s an unsigned RFA who struggled to back up his career year with similar results. When he’s on, he’s a proven top-6 talent who can score at a solid rate. When he’s off, he’s a reliable middle-6 two-way winger. He’s a quality mid-range talent with glimpses of top-tier producer potential. Coming in unsigned off a $2.1 million contract, Dallas would be acquiring him heading into a prove-it deal — likely one or two years at similar value. His age, utility, and upside make him the most attractive piece in a potential deal. [UPDATE: McMichael was included in the Kyrou trade — he’s off the table.]

Why the Price Is Right

The offer sheet remains on the table. At Robertson’s salary level, that’s a four-first-round-pick compensation. If Washington gets to that stage, it’s arguably the better option from a pure cost standpoint — no roster player included. The downside is that you lose exclusivity in negotiations. You’re competing against Dallas’ ability to match, as well as other teams’ competing offers.

The cost is real either way. But I’d argue first-round picks are significantly overvalued for a team that intends to compete year after year. You make this trade or submit this offer sheet, you lose your firsts — in exchange for being a legitimate contender for multiple seasons. That’s the deal.

Look at the Capitals’ draft history over the last ten years. Ryan Leonard is by far the best pick and the best prospect this organization has selected in that stretch. After him, McMichael had become a quality depth player — and he just got traded. The remaining first-rounders? Fringe NHLers, most of them. Meanwhile, Washington has historically been elite at finding value in the second through fourth rounds — the kind of depth players that make a roster complete.

So tell me: which of the last decade’s first-round picks wouldn’t you trade for a proven 40-goal scorer? Leonard. Maybe one other. That’s it. The rest are exactly the kind of players you can find in round three. Trading firsts for Robertson isn’t giving up the crown jewels — it’s trading theoretical value for a proven commodity. And with Ovi’s window closing, theoretical doesn’t cut it anymore.

One Move Down. One to Go.

As this piece was being written, the Capitals traded McMichael and the 16th pick for Jordan Kyrou. It’s a good trade. Kyrou is fast, skilled, cost-controlled, and fits the timeline. He’ll be a top-3 scorer on this team. The front office is awake.

But Kyrou has never scored above 75 points. He’s another excellent supporting contributor on a roster that already had excellent supporting contributors. He is not the handoff. He is not the 40-goal scorer this piece has been arguing for. He is a very good move, but it doesn’t solve the central problem.

The asset pool is thinner now. McMichael is gone. Pick 16 is gone. Pick 18 remains. The Robertson pursuit just got harder. But the Kyrou trade proved something important — this front office is willing to move real assets for real players. The right instinct is there. Now finish the job.

Next Move Happened.

The second big move happened while putting the final details together — my timing is impeccable. Alex Tuch was signed and traded to the Capitals as the second major move in as many days. My overall thoughts mimic what they were for Kyrou: Tuch is another guy who can score, definitely a top-5 scorer on the team. He’s 30 and will likely have a few highly productive years — but at this stage, he’s not going to elevate to a new level. He’s going to score 30+ goals and put up 70+ points.

Looking at the current team, it appears the front office is leaning toward a scoring-by-committee approach rather than having “The Guy,” which isn’t a terrible strategy. The Hurricanes just won a Cup without a single player scoring 35 goals or having more than 80 points — they had 3 players score 70+ points (Aho, Ehlers, and Svechnikov), with 2 players scoring more than 30 goals (Jarvis and Svechnikov). The Caps now have 5 wingers (Wilson, Kyrou, Tuch, Ovi, Protas) who have proven they can score 30+ goals, and 7 forwards who can produce 65 to 80 points (previous list + Strome, and Dubois), with Leonard and ‘Lil Pro showing the potential to be in the same categories. That is nothing to be disappointed in.

Potential lines:

Kyrou — Dubois — Leonard

A. Protas — I. Protas — Wilson

Ovi — Strome — Tuch

Beauvillier — Sourdif — Frank

This is a highly competitive team. I’ll have to do a basic stats deep dive to see where they line up in the division and conference. But this is arguably a top-3 forward group in the East.

Side note — the smallest forward on this roster is Beauvillier at 5’11” and 181 pounds. This team stayed large and got faster.

What’s Left?

The only true gap that is left is a top-4 right defenseman. Sandin could fill it, but he’s out for a considerable time, and he’s a left shot. I’d prefer a solid two-way veteran to pair with Cole Hutson, who is already an offensive replacement for Sandin. Names are being thrown around — honestly, I don’t have a favorite based on reality. My hope is to see John Carlson brought back to town, but the chances are probably slim.

I can also see Beauvillier being a draft-day trade to create additional cap space or move into position for a desired pick. With Miroshnichenko and Trineyev in the system, either one steps into that spot well.

What I also like about this current setup is that it still allows the young guys in the lineup room to step up and contribute. Sourdif and Leonard can make big steps this season. There’s a real-world scenario where Lenny becomes “The Guy” in five years as a perennial 40-goal scorer — if everything plays out well. We’ll also see Hutson’s first full season. He ended last year with 14 games and 10 points. If the pace drops a little but he plays a full year, he’s in Calder Trophy contention.

The 1C remains a question, but the added firepower on the wings insulates the need for a high-production 1C.

The big question — Ovi’s return? I’d bet on it now. My hottest take of all surrounding pre-draft speculation: I would not be surprised to hear Ovi tell the Caps to spend whatever they need to, and that he’ll take an extremely team-friendly deal to slide in. He’s proven to be loyal and has left money on the table for the team before; I think he does it again.